Web browsers and the future

In his post 2003 in browsers
 , Yuhůů wrote about the trends in browser use over 2003.
 That year is behind us. We might as well start talking about what comes next.

Technology

Which technologies will take off soon, and which will gather dust? Right now
 I see two main directions for the web, applications and the semantic web. You can already see 
 the web for information turning into the semantic web. Just look at blogs and other outlets that 
 offer RSS feeds, for instance. The semantic web won’t affect browsers directly.
 They’ll just consume it passively.

Web applications

The year 2003 hinted at where web applications are headed. We can expect rich internet
 applications (RIAs) to emerge soon. The first sign of broader adoption will probably 
 be Macromedia Flex. 
 Flex will extend the browser’s presentation layer and give developers control over things they previously 
 couldn’t touch.

That might spark wider adoption of the Mozilla suite, 
 which already provides the means to build RIAs through XUL. 
 It would be a poor forecast if I left out Microsoft. It will play a major role
 in how web applications develop.

Internet Explorer in new clothes

The news that Microsoft would stop developing the current Internet Explorer
 caused quite a stir, and the announcement offered few clues as to why Microsoft
 had taken that step. With hindsight, the decision makes more sense. The architecture
 of the upcoming Longhorn operating system was a big part of it. Consider the Avalon rendering engine and XAML.

XAML is meant to describe user interfaces, and using it with the new Internet
 Explorer should make RIAs possible. The radically different operating system
 architecture and pressure to remove Internet Explorer from the core probably led Microsoft 
 to its much-discussed decision to end the current browser model.

Technologically, Internet Explorer 6.0 is about two generations behind what
 the advanced Mozilla browser can do today. Still, IE will hold its dominant position
 until Longhorn arrives. The semantic web won’t exhaust what version 6 can do. 
 For web applications there’ll be Flex or an extension in the form of ActiveX.

Two things could play in Mozilla’s favor. First, a little-known fact. The Mozilla internet 
 suite is part of the Java Desktop System, and Sun managed to sell 200,000,000 of those desktops to China.
 The second and somewhat less important factor is when RIAs take off.
 If adoption of Flex goes less smoothly and Internet Explorer can’t meet the minimum requirements,
 there could be an opening for Mozilla to gain more ground in companies.

Web services are taking off more slowly than expected. For browsers they’ll be more of
 an offshoot of the application web. They’ll put additional demands on browsers, but even today’s
 browsers should have no trouble meeting them.

Two things will shape the development of web applications in any form. 
 What do businesses need, and what can the technology do? In 2004 we’ll start to hear
 the death knell for current web applications as everything shifts toward RIAs.

… and the others

Opera is a very solid browser, but it can’t do everything Mozilla can and operates
 in the shadow of Internet Explorer. I can see it being more useful on alternative devices
 that provide internet access. It’s highly unlikely that a browser will emerge
 with technology ahead of today’s options.