Sun downsizes

I don't feel entirely qualified to comment on the effects of the current financial crisis, but it looks as if it could affect Java itself. No, that isn't as far-fetched as it might seem at first, particularly in light of Sun's announcement that it will cut 5,000–6,000 jobs, restructure its software division and see the departure of R. Green, its CTO for software. What might all this mean for Java?

Green was the driving force behind the major push to make Java open source. His departure probably won't bring that process to an end, but it could slow it down, and that certainly wouldn't help Java. The layoffs themselves could cut both ways. Sun might use some of the money it saves to strengthen Java R&D. Then again, it could bleed the software division dry and leave fewer people working on Java itself.

Another worrying factor is the frustration or disillusionment that the people behind Java may feel about Sun's present situation. That could mean a continued exodus of talented people to companies such as Google or Microsoft. The loss of those key minds could turn out to be the most serious problem.

I don't believe Java's future is independent of Sun's. Opening up the source and the JCP, the process for extending Java, have made Java less dependent on Sun itself, but the two are still joined at the umbilical cord. If Sun had to squeeze that cord, so to speak, another steward would have to take its place. People often call IBM the heir apparent, but Sun is still clearly in charge of all the key areas I can see, from the runtime, development tools and community support to leadership of the major Java Community Process efforts, EE and SE.

If it came to that and IBM took over, or was forced to, it certainly wouldn't happen overnight. IBM would have to invest more in Java, above all in people. I'm hardly optimistic about that. There are other strong companies out there, but I think a weaker Sun would unfortunately have a major effect on Java.